Predicting Apple's Next Announcement
by Paul Rego
(written 1/21/07)
(last updated 1/24/07)

The Waiting Period
Unless your Macintosh breaks down, it's not always a good idea to buy a new model the day it's announced. Typically, it's probably a good idea to wait at least 30-days after a product announcement before making your purchase. With that said… I remember when the first iMac G5 models were announced. I looked over their details and decided to buy one. I waited 30-days and read everything I could about them during that time. After the 30-days were up, I wasn't able to immediately run out and buy one. It turned out this was a good thing because after about 60-days (if I remember correctly), I started reading reports on the Internet about people having problems with these models. Since then we've learned that a lot of these "Revision A" iMac G5 models had bad capacitors. Some of those capacitors would melt causing other problems. Because of this, I was a little more cautious when purchasing my current iMac G5 "Revision B" model — which I still have and works flawlessly.

So When Do I Buy A New Mac?
Although it's impossible to predict exactly "what" Apple will introduce and "when" they will do it, I have made some observations which may help when buying your next Mac…
•	If there aren't any special events going on, Apple typically releases new products on a "Tuesday".

•	If there is a special event going on AND Steve Jobs is giving the Keynote Address, you can expect him to announce one or more new products or technologies during his talk — even if the Keynote Address is NOT on a Tuesday.

•	If Apple is an exhibitor at an event, they "may" release a new product the day the expo opens — even if this is NOT on a Tuesday.

•	Apple "usually" tailors their product announcements to specific events. For example, if Apple has both "consumer" and "professional" products ready, but the upcoming event is Macworld San Francisco (www.macworldexpo.com) or an education expo, they may release their consumer lineup and save their professional announcements for a more compatible event, if it's within a few weeks (such as Photoshop World — www.photoshopworld.com — or the expo of the National Association of Broadcasters — www.nab.org).

	Along the same idea, Apple "usually" talks about or announces Operating System features or "professional-level" hardware (such as the Mac Pro) during their annual WWDC (World Wide Developer's Conference), which is held sometime during the summer. They "typically" don't introduce new "consumer-level" products (iMac, Mac mini, iPod, etc.) during this event.

•	Because of the holiday buying season, Apple will typically not announce or release any new products from the middle of November through Macworld expo in January.

•	When trying to predict when Apple will announce a new product, sometimes you have to look at larger cycles. In making a prediction of when Apple will release "Leopard", Mac OS X version 10.5, some of the Macintosh rumor sites are saying it will be on March 24th. Why this particular date? Because it's exactly 6-years from when Apple released Mac OS X version 10.0. Of course, we'll all have to wait until March 24, 2007 to know if the rumor sites were right.

Now It's Obsolete!
I've heard many Mac owners over the years proclaim their brand new Macintosh "obsolete" just because Apple announced another new model and theirs is only a few weeks old. During the years of owning my first few Macintosh models, I felt the same way. With each new model being touted as having the best technology and fastest speed, I knew I had to have that new one — or at least I thought I did. Because I looked upon the new Macintosh in awe, I also looked upon my current Macintosh as old.

A few decades ago, the thinking in the computer world was the technology would double every 18-months. This is probably still true but in the last few years, it seems as though new technology is being thrown at us at an ever-increasing rate. However, if you look closely, you'll see that the overall technology is not "doubling". New products are introduced more frequently because, in my opinion, manufacturers must find a way to make even more money. I don't want this article to be an examination of business practices, so I'll continue with a theory (an observation would be a better term) of how you can become more educated when buying your next Macintosh…

So, if computer technology is not doubling with every newly announced Macintosh, what's happening and do I need it?

Every new Macintosh model does have some hardware improvement. It has to. Otherwise, no one would want to buy a new model right after buying the previous model. Remember, we're talking about "hardware" changes. If the "software" changes, you can buy the new software and add it to your current Macintosh — as long as it meets the software's requirements.

Change Your Thinking About Your Current Macintosh
It seems as though new hardware and software is introduced all the time. Constantly, hearing about these new products can keep us on edge and make us think our current Macintosh and its software is no longer any good. Keep in mind that hardware and software doesn't spoil like food and you should only feel "left out" IF you need the functionality of that new technology. For example, if you only use your Macintosh for browsing the web and sending & receiving eMail you probably won't need a new Macintosh or even new Operating System until your current Macintosh stops working.

For another example, let's say you use Adobe Photoshop to edit family photos. At some point, Adobe introduces a new version of Photoshop but you learn that all the new features involve creating web pages. Since you've never put up your own web pages and have no interest in doing so, do you need this new version of Photoshop? Probably not. This means your version is doing everything you want it to do and that means it's not "obsolete". In "your" world, all of your computer technology is "current" or "state-of-the-art".

Some "Theory" Background
Let's say you do need a new Macintosh. Do you simply buy the current model or should you wait for the very next introduction?

Over the last 2 and a half decades, I've read everything I could on various Macintosh-related products from other companies, rumors of what Apple "may" come out with and all the Macintosh specifications. A few years ago, I realized that certain versions of the Macintosh Operating System are what I would call "plateau" versions. These are versions which are the most stable and/or are the most popular required version by a variety of third-party (non Apple) companies for their products. (This is explained in the file called "Should You Upgrade Your Mac OS X?". It's located in the download area of the M.A.C.S. "Members Only" web page.) After further observations, I also realized that my "plateau" or "sweet spot" theory can be applied to Macintosh models as well…

How To Determine A "Better" Macinotsh
Sometimes it takes a little common sense. When I purchased my iMac G5 I looked over the specs (technical specifications) and noticed something interesting in the video technology of the three different models. (At that time, Apple released two 17-inch iMacs and one 20-inch iMac.) I saw that the lower-priced 17-inch model had only 64MB of graphics memory but the middle 17-inch iMac AND the 20-inch iMac had the same 128MB of graphics memory as well as the same graphics technology. This told me one very important piece of information… Since more graphics technology and memory is required for larger monitors, the middle 17-inch iMac would have "power to spare" — meaning more graphics technology to perhaps display more graphics effects, such as fog in games and that ripple effect when a new Widget is added to Tiger (Mac OS X 10.4).

Graphics technology is an important part of "computer" technology. Even if you don't play games, some programs "require" or "work better" when they have a little extra technology. Editing photos is a big one. Using a scanner and sometimes a printer can also benefit by having more general technology —especially "graphics" technology.

Which Is The Best Macintosh To Buy?
In reality, we can only point our finger at a "plateau" Macintosh model a year or two after it has been released. However, this doesn't help us when buying our next Mac. So, we have to use a bit of common sense, fortune telling, trend forecasting as well as know how to sift through the specs of the current models. We even have to look at the fact that "Apple Computer, Inc." has changed its name to "Apple, Inc.". With the word "computer" removed from its name, and more consumer electronics products being released (such as the AppleTV and iPhone), this tells us that Apple is going to continue developing their vision of the "Digital Hub" based around the Macintosh. Even if you're not going to use an iPod, AppleTV or iPhone, you'll want to look for Macintosh technology which supports those products. Why? Because that's where the Macs are headed and the most popular Macs are the ones other manufacturers look to when creating new products — they'll make sure their products work with those specific Macs. If you don't buy one of those Macs, at some point in the future, you risk not being able to buy a new printer or piece of software because it won't be compatible with the Macintosh you purchased.

One of these new technologies is the upcoming Wi-Fi (wireless networking between devices) standard known as "802.11n". Up until now, Macs have been using "802.11a", "802.11b" and "802.11g". Each higher letter indicates its associated technology is faster and/or better than the technology of the letter before it. Most Wi-Fi devices are "backward compatible". Which means, if your Macintosh has 802.11g technology it can communicate (work seamlessly) with older devices (such as those with 802.11a). Since the same will probably be true for 802.11n, any Macintosh having this new technology would be considered a "plateau" Macintosh — at least where wireless networking is concerned. With that said, you should also be aware that as of this writing, Apple's implementation of 802.11n is based on a "draft" of this technology. This means the Wi-Fi technology itself is not finalized and there "may" be incompatibility issues with future wireless products. "Yes", Apple will probably release a firmware update to address those (if any) issues. It's just something you should be aware of. If it were up to me, I would wait until that technology was finalized before buying a Macintosh for that purpose.

Plateau Technologies
New technologies almost always appear inside Apple's "professional" models (Mac Pro and MacBook Pro) first. Personally, I like to wait until those technologies have been refined and appear within Apple's "consumer" models (iMac and MacBook). So eventually, all major technologies make their way through Apple's Macintosh product line.

Below, I've listed a few technologies which will be important (in my opinion) to have in your next Macintosh. If your next Mac doesn't have them, that's fine but having them will simply mean you'll be able to utilize more hardware and software AND you'll be able to hang on to your Macintosh before feeling it's "obsolete".

•	Wi-Fi (for wireless networking, which is sharing information, between devices — iPod, Macintosh, AppleTV, iPhone, etc.) Look for 802.11n (but not the "draft" version) in your next Macintosh, if you want to use your Macintosh wirelessly between devices such as a high-speed modem or most other Apple devices.

•	Graphics capability: A "plateau" Macintosh would be one which has at least 128MB of dedicated graphics RAM (memory). Apple's Mac OS X Operating System is graphics-intensive. Having at least 128MB of graphics RAM means your Macintosh will "probably" be able to handle the graphics needs of "Leopard" (Mac OS X 10.5) with some graphics technology left over for programs which also require this type of muscle.

•	Core 2 Duo: Right now, the iMac and MacBook Pro can only make use of a maximum of 3GB of RAM. Some of the Macintosh "rumor" sites are saying that an upcoming Intel processor (the computer's brain) will allow the Macintosh to access up to 4GB of RAM. This means a "plateau" Macintosh would be one which can utilize at least 4GB of RAM.

•	Quad Processors: "If" and "when" Apple produces a iMacs which have 4 processors, THEY would be considered "plateau" models. (Right now, the iMacs with "Core 2 Duo" have 2 processors.
	NOTE: Apple's web site states "Leopard" (Mac OS X 10.5) contains 64-bit technology. It also states that the Mac Pro's "Xeon" processor (more powerful than the "Core 2 Duo") contains 64-bit technology. Although Leopard may work just fine on less-capable Macs, if Apple releases an iMac with a "Xeon" processor or one with a different name but contains 64-bit technology, then that Macintosh will be a "plateau" model.

•	"Leopard" (Mac OS X 10.5) should be released by Spring 2007. Leopard contains software called "Time Machine" which is supposed to automatically backup everything you create, download and edit. We may learn that all the Macintosh models, which have Leopard pre-installed on their hard drives, will have 2 hard drives in order to handle all the extra storage. If this is the case, new Macs which have 2 hard drives will be considered "plateau" models.
	NOTE: We may learn that Leopard simply requires a very large hard drive. If this is the case, then look for a Macintosh with the largest hard drive — "if" you plan on creating and/or downloading a LOT of documents.

If your next Macintosh contains any of the above "plateau" technologies, it will take a lot longer for that technology to be replaced and even when it is, your Macintosh will still be very capable in that one area for some time to come. However, if your next Macintosh contains ALL of the above, you will truly have a "plateau" Macintosh — at least that's how things look at this moment.